H1N1: Has the Second Wave Peaked in U.S. and U.K.?

on 13 November 2009, 4:02 PM | 0 Comments

As public health officials have stressed since the swine flu pandemic surfaced last April, influenza is unpredictable. But one thing is predictable: pandemic influenza viruses come in waves that typically peak about 6 to 7 weeks after they begin to climb. New data from the United States and the United Kingdom hint that the second wave of the swine flu pandemic may have peaked in these countries.

According to a situation update released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention today, widespread disease last week dropped from 48 states to 46. That may not seem like much, but visits to the doctor for influenza-like illness also declined for the second week in a row after 4 weeks of “sharp” increases. CDC divides the country into 10 regions, and this drop in doctor visits was seen in all but one of them.

CDC’s situation update today put a cautious spin on the encouraging trend, noting that “certain indicators declined, while others continued to rise.” The update notes that flu activity remained “very high” and “unprecedented” for this time of year. Hospitalization rate and deaths also continued to climb.

In the United Kingdom, the Health Protection Agency (HPA) on 12 November noted a 24% decrease in estimated cases from the preceding week, and said “the number of cases has decreased in most regions and age groups.” Doctors also reported a drop in consultations for flu-like illness. But the drop may have been linked to recent school holidays, cautioned HPA, “so it is difficult to predict future trends.”

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